Altho the current economic woes will eventually pass, I still wonder about vintage dealer reality. Like there are over 30 Hi Lo Tennies on GBase, all $2500-5500. These are not rare guitars. Gretsch sold many thousands of them, and many are still around in close to original condition.
So who is shelling out $4500 for a 1963 Tennessean? Nobody I know.
I personally wouldn't spend that on a hilo Tenny, but to put things in an international perspective :
-The discounted price for a brand new FMIC Hilo Tenny reissue over here is around 2300/400 Euro, according to what I can find online. (I'm in Belgium, price found is from a Dutch dealer) That calculates to $3100.
I reckon it must be silly season, or something... just trawling fleabay for the most expensive les paul / strat, and I came across what I would describe as one of the most ridiculous...
they must be on crack
dang, why hasn't anyone bid yet? thats a great deal on a new LP with vintage plastic!!!!
I'm surprised they didnt throw in the robot tuning setup, just for convience.
Price aside, I think that's a beautiful guitar. Yeah, kinda silly. But in the pics, it looks they really got that gibby cherry color right.
But Adam, it's clearly a proper vintage Les Paul! Oh hang on, sorry, that's right... the important stuff is a whole 7 years old...!
Bax, is there an 'ebay-trader-who's brain-might-be-useful-in-case-you-want-to-build-an-idiot' smiley???
I initially discovered the GDP when I had an opportunity to buy my 1957 6120. I needed opinions on what it was worth and found some great advice here.
I am not looking to buy any guitars at the moment, but love to window shop and follow the market. I think that the market for vintage guitars is soft now, and if I had some discretionary income to invest I would. From my own experience I have been a lot more successful with buying vintage guitars than my broker has been in buying stocks. I haven't sold any of my guitars but have been happy to see their value increase.
Because I follow the market, I recognized the opportunities that were presented to me. I was in no hurry and only bought things that I really wanted to own and play.
As far as the market ... Here is an example -
The famous "Yikes Guitar" has been offered, time and time again, on ebay for over 3 years ... The seller initially asked for $20,019.53 ... then $15,019.53 ... Now, just this week, it is being offered at $13,019.53 or make offer!
Still high but ... tempting for making an offer ...
I think that a lot of people who have been holding out on these things are starting to feel the pain ...
Bottom Line - I think that, there are some bargains out there ... you have to do your homework and wait for the opportunity ... If it is an investment hold on to it until the market turns around ... If it is just for finding a cool vintage guitar to play, make an offer and you my be pleasantly surprised ... but you have to do your homework !
I'm no vintage expert, but vintage guitar dealers have to eat every day, just like everyone else. The Dow Jones has lost nearly 4,000 points lately, and it won't gain them back nearly as quickly as it lost them. It's such developments as that that may cause the high-dollar collector cats to play it close to the vest. In 2009, they're going to be focused on turning their investment positions around, not buying toys.
Next year will likely be a painful year in the US for anyone whose income is dependent wholly on customers (collectors) deciding they should pay more for an item than they would have year ago because they want it so bad.
On the bright side, if you somehow are not affected by the slump and you'd like to own a vintage guitar or two, 2009 might be a very happy year for you.
By the way, 57Chet's '57s are marvels to behold, including his cowboy case. They just don't make cases like they used to, doggonit!
Paul/FF909
Billydilight said: they must be on crack
Don't think so Billy... I think they're on some different new super drug that we haven't heard of yet. It must be something that allows the user to COMPLETELY lose touch with reality - maybe a mix of LSD, heroin, and crack.
Ha!
Sorry - So many folks have commented on the case ...
Although it is a "Cowboy Case" - It reminds me of something that gangsters would carry around in Chicago, back in the '20s ... It would match the spat shoes worn by the guys ...
There was a scene in the film "Saint Valentine's Day Massacre", that was parodied in "The Blues Brothers" ...
Scenario - The gangsters are checking into a boarding house with their machine guns hidden in violin cases ...
Landlady - "I hope you boys won't be playing those all night"
Gangster - "Don't worry ma'am, we won't play these until we get paid!"
There will be a LOT of "vintage" gear moving in the next few years.
IMO, the new trend has started a while back. More oldies for sale, pricing in general lower.
Yes, there's always that "special" piece on the market that will bring top dollar. Big money "collectors" will always fill/update their needs, but the "average" guy will be selling his little collection, and there's a lot of "average guys" with a few too many gits and amps.
IMO, there will be some great deals out there for those who have CASH to spend.
Of course there's always the loonies that have a sky high asking price for anything, but at least they were crazy before the market started crashing........and still are
Really 57 Chet,
You should wear a matching white suit with brown leather shoes while you walk with that.
Your guitars are sublime.
Thanks for bringing them and THANKS for letting me play the roundup!
If only...
Crow - B
You are one cool cat ...
We'll talk again!
Lucky me, finally getting into a bit of disposable income (very limited with tuition, rent and food to pay, but still, some) I just might be able to pick up a few nice oldies.
I'm thinking there may be a few collectors dumping their collections for cheaper than normal if they've come into financial strife caused by the economy. So those selling will sell cheaper, those buying won't want to spend as much, and the circle of life goes on.
P.S. Dangerousman, that drug is called Tokai Love Rock. (Reference to another thread "Anyone know how to date Tokai Love Rocks?")
DCBirdMan said: Altho the current economic woes will eventually pass, I still wonder about vintage dealer reality. Like there are over 30 Hi Lo Tennies on GBase, all $2500-5500. These are not rare guitars. Gretsch sold many thousands of them, and many are still around in close to original condition.Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Fender also sell thousands of Stratocasters back in the '60s? Why then do these guitars sell for so much money? Is the demand actually so high that thousands of people are looking for pre-CBS (and post CBS) Strats and are willing to pay $10,000-$30,000? Obviously these guitars are not rare. On eBay, GBase and elsewhere there are hundreds of '60s Strats currently for sale. I'm also starting to see late '60s/early '70s Strats going for %5000-$10,000! I just don't get it.
"It's A Stratocaster!" This whole thing reminds me of the people who sell scratched Beatles albums at yard sales for $50 apiece! "But it's the Beatles!"
As someone who has bought and sold many guitars over the years I am glad I don't "have" to sell anything right now. Sadly I would need to sell one to buy something too. So hard to take advantage of the lower prices. It's sort of like the real estate market. It is a good time to buy a house but only if you don't have to sell your current house.
So I guess I am "guitar poor" so to speak. I do think guitars are a good solid long term investment and I am glad to have some of the guitars I have instead of WaMu stock for instance.
Boyko the Tokai Registry should help you with dating Love Rocks:
I'm thinking there will be a lot more vintage stuff on the market in the next 5 years too, but not just because some folks will need to liquidate during the upcoming tough times... but because the Baby Boomers who drove the whole vintage guitar craze over the past 20 years are aging. Those 55 year old collectors, who had the motives and extra money to buy all those vintage pieces 15-20 years ago, are now in their 70's. Some will just play less, and decide it's time to cash in on the investment (for their golden years) and others (sadly) will pass, leaving wonderful vintage specimens to their families... who in many cases have no idea what they've just inherited. I'm actually starting to see the latter occur more frequently (via Ebay).
If this is true the prices may drop a bit. A combination of more stuff being available (supply) and tougher economic times may just redefine what certain models are worth. Regardless, I foresee a lot of guys who were counting on getting top dollar for their stuff, being frustrated at the timing of this circumstance. 
The circumstances you listed above will also continue to fuel the ongoing overinflation of pricing by uneducated sellers.
I was thinking about this very thing the other day. Now that the market has tanked (crashed) we will see a ton of cool stuff go on ebay.
I predict we will see a lot of "priced to move" stuff. These people need to free up cash as soon as possible. Well see some overpriced sellers, but then people will begin to undercut.
I agree audiodrome & Chonny!
The whole premise of "collectibles" as an investment is nothing more than a paper tiger. Whether it's musical instruments, baseball cards, beanie babies (remember the stupid prices on some of those?) or stamps & coins, the very idea that the average person can fund their retirement by "investing" in collectible items is ludicrous. The uneducated sellers who overprice a "rare" or "collectible" instrument either out of greed or ignorance will find themselves left holding the bag, as many cash-strapped potential buyers will be bargain-hunting.
True, there are certain items that will always command a premium price in the collectible market due to the perceived value determined by the relationship between demand, condition and rarity, but the only people who have the spare coin to purchase such items are the same people who can afford to take a loss on them.
I think a large part of the current vintage & collectible guitar market is primarily driven by baby boomer nostalgia, and the flawed perception that "old" = "valuable".
I buy vintage instruments from time to time, but only if they are within my disposable income budget, and ONLY if I can make use of them... e.g. are they playable, in decent (not necessarily pristine) condition, and if I actually LIKE the particular instrument. These are not the only parameters by which I decide to buy a vintage guitar, but I can tell you that perceived "collectible" value never even enters the equation. I buy a guitar because I like it, not because I expect to make a mint off of it in the future. If it goes up in value, great. If not, big deal. That's why playability is key for me.
I'm always looking for bargains, and I've been socking away extra cash for a few months now, waiting for a downturn in the market. Hopefully KCeddieB is right, and we'll begin to see all the suckers clear out of the market at reduced prices.
Bottom line is that the true value of something is determined by what someone is willing to pay for it. And most folks are a little more judicious with their pocketbook in an economic downturn. This means that they will be less likely to pay $5000 for a 60's Strat when there are thousands of them available.
"I buy vintage instruments from time to time, but only if they are within my disposable income budget, and ONLY if I can make use of them... e.g. are they playable, in decent (not necessarily pristine) condition, and if I actually LIKE the particular instrument. These are not the only parameters by which I decide to buy a vintage guitar, but I can tell you that perceived "collectible" value never even enters the equation. I buy a guitar because I like it, not because I expect to make a mint off of it in the future. If it goes up in value, great. If not, big deal. That's why playability is key for me. "
TP I agree. All my instruments must earn their keep. I don't have two that do the same thing. It is however easier for me to justify buying guitars that I know will either increase in value or stay roughly the same as opposed to a new guitar. It is mostly a justification to buy a new toy. Yeah uuuuuh these are um cough cough inVESTments yeah yeah right. LOL
Collectibles are seriously not bad investments if done wisely. Stamps seem like a stupid investment too but they are generally good over the long haul. I believe the baby boomer drop in vintage guitars is going to come in the mega over inflated areas like 58-60 'burst Les Pauls and '50s Stratocasters. I mean they are just not that much better than a Historic or Custom Shop reissue to demand that kind of money. Player-wise.
Good utility vintage instruments will always continue to go up in value I think. But I am only willing to bet on that with instruments I like to play. After all that is what they were built for anyway.
One thing I know for sure... the Blue Book system of applying value to vintage guitars is useless! As someone has already pointed out, the value of a guitar is exactly what it sells for on Ebay. That's the hard reality.
Since we in the hobby don't have a "Gretsch Index" to follow (like the investment brokers use in the financial markets) Ebay is the best tool to track the fluctuation in vintage guitar value. It will be interesting to watch all the uniformed sellers attempt to sell their inherited guitars for what they find in Blue Books. Prepare for a lot of "did not meet reserve" auctions in the near future!
kelvinator60 said: All my instruments must earn their keep. I don't have two that do the same thing.This is my philosophy all the way. I currently own 19 guitars but all of them have a purpose. I play in three different bands which all require different guitar/amp combinations. 1 or 2 of my guitars never really get played, but they're from my childhood and they really only have a sentimental value, so there's no point in selling them. I also own a few less expensive "utility" instruments: a banjo, a ukelele, a classical guitar, and a "Nashville" hi-string guitar for recording session work. There's only one guitar I might consider selling in the future but I probably won't because it's kind of rare and I like having it for the "cool" factor - my '66 UK Vox Phantom.
The thing I'm noticing with a lot of these "vintage" Fenders is that they sit around for a long time. None of them seem to be selling at these prices. The Les Paul market appears to be doing a little better.
"Blue Book system of applying value to vintage guitars is useless!"
Absolutely!!! Vintage Guitar's Blue Book is pulling that data from dealers! So yeah Ebay watching is maybe a better method. Having said that, as someone who has had 2 guitars not show up and the money gone on ebay I am often willing to pay extra from a reputable dealer for the security. Just not to the tune of $4000 for a '66 6117 with all the binding falling off.
So probably true value falls a little north of ebay but a lot less than the MEGA vintage dealer prices. Of course when at a guitar show and you have a mint (insert fave guitar here) in your hands and the GAS starts to build anything goes. I generally stay away from guitar shows for that reason. If I do go I leave my wallet at home! LOL
